Grand National First Fence FallersThe amount of first fence fallers can seem hard to predict as the going seems to play no part in the outcome. The most first fence fallers since 1990 was 9 in 2002 on good ground but in 1998 there were five first fence fallers on soft going.
The reason there were so many fallers in 2002 is a few of the prominent runners fell and caused a certain amount of carnage which brought down a few other runners in one way or another.
It is worth checking to see how the iffy jumpers are likely to run. If they are prominent runners then when they fall they are going to have an adverse affect on those behind. If they are hold up performers they are likely to have little or no effect on the other runners.
First Fence Fallers in the National - Recent HistoryAnother point to take note of is that since 1990 there has always been at least one faller at the first. In eleven of the seventeen runnings since 1990 there were either one or two fallers. This makes this number by far the most likely outcome and probably the one to back.
| Year | First Fence Fallers | Going | Number of Runners | | 2007 | 2 | Good | 40 | | 2006 | 5 | Good to Soft | 40 | | 2005 | 2 | Good to Soft | 40 | | 2004 | 3 | Good | 39 | | 2003 | 1 | Good | 40 | | 2002 | 9 | Good | 40 | | 2001 | 2 | Heavy | 40 | | 2000 | 5 | Good | 40 | | 1999 | 1 | Good | 32 | | 1998 | 5 | Soft | 37 | | 1997 | 1 | Good | 36 | | 1996 | 2 | Good | 27 | | 1995 | 7 | Good | 35 | | 1994 | 1 | Heavy | 36 | | 1992 | 1 | Good to Soft | 40 | | 1991 | 1 | Good to Soft | 40 | | 1990 | 1 | Firm | 38 |
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